The analyst told how to keep savings against the backdrop of the collapse and strengthening of the ruble


Over the past week, the ruble has drastically lost ground in the foreign exchange market, which experts explained by increased geopolitical uncertainty. At the peak of the fall, the national currency broke through the mark of 94 rubles per dollar and 102 rubles per euro. The head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Elvira Nabiullina, even urged not to build “conspiracy theories” because of this. By the end of the week, however, the situation had changed: the ruble began to win back losses and ended the weekly trading near 92 per dollar and 100 per euro. What caused such changes and how they will affect the pockets of Russians, Alexander Razuvaev, a member of the Supervisory Board of the Guild of Financial Analysts and Risk Managers, told MK.

– Why did the ruble fall all week?

– The volatility of exchange rates is the bread of speculators. Who studied what, as they say in such cases: they earned good money, but everything else does not interest them. The Bank of Russia allows this, does not interfere. This is a controversial policy. The regulator considers the current monetary policy, including floating exchange rate and inflation targeting, to be effective. This was stated during the Financial Congress on July 6 by the Chairman of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation Elvira Nabiullina. After that, on the same day, the dollar exchange rate exceeded 93 rubles. The head of the Bank of Russia urged not to mention the “conspiracy theory” about a weak ruble in the interests of the budget. According to her, the exchange rate dynamics is determined by the situation in foreign trade. Sanctions certainly work. Russia is indeed experiencing difficulties with its trade balance and budget, but it is not clear why the regulator is inactive. It is necessary to raise the rate from 7.5% to 8-8.5% already today, interventions by leading exporters, and they are primarily state-owned, could also support the national currency. The fall of the ruble discourages any desire to invest in ruble deposits and fixed income instruments, even among friendly countries or their big capital. The controversial policy of the Central Bank raises many questions, but the regulator is in no hurry to answer them.

– What will happen to the prices? Will the devaluation of the ruble greatly accelerate inflation?

– Of course, the effect of devaluation on inflation this time is much less than in 2008 and even more so in 1998, but all Russians will notice how this will affect prices. Household appliances are gradually becoming more expensive. Cars are already predicted to rise in price up to 10%. The list of goods, the cost of which may increase, is very wide: from industrial equipment and auto parts to plane and train tickets. Russians who spend holidays abroad should be prepared for increased costs due to currency differences.

In connection with the devaluation of the national currency, inflation is accelerating, forcing the Bank of Russia to raise the key rate. The regulator will do this at the next meeting, which will be held on July 21, which means an increase in the cost of loans for businesses and will also eventually affect the cost of finished products, so prices will rise not only for imported, but also for domestic goods.

– And why did the national currency begin to strengthen by the end of the week?

– In my opinion, the ruble began to rise in price the day before on the words of German Gref that it was oversold, and I completely agree with this assessment. The state banker, speaking at the same Financial Congress, expressed uncertainty that now the ruble exchange rate is at an optimal level and predicted its strengthening. At the same time, he added that the market will no longer see the extremely low dollar values ​​that everyone observed last year.

– So the ruble has reached the limit of falling?

“We are indeed seeing a unique situation. I believe that it has a political component. Don’t misunderstand me, I’m a statesman myself, but let’s look at what is happening through the eyes of ordinary Russians. Experts on TV and radio, and in fact, from every iron, tell citizens that “the dollar is all over,” but it takes and rises in price, and the ruble flies into the abyss. Society has questions. The most common thing we hear is that the Bank of Russia has decided to frame the president. But, in my opinion, not everything is so scary. My forecast is as follows: at the next meeting on July 21, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will immediately raise the key rate by 0.5% – from the current 7.5% to 8%. By the end of the year, it may reach 8.5% -9%. Inflation at the end of 2023 will be at the level of 5.5%. Let me remind you that the regulator’s target is 4%.

— And what can Russians expect from the ruble exchange rate?

– I believe that the dollar will be at the level of 65-70 rubles by the end of the year. At the same time, it is dangerous for Russians to invest in dollars now. The sanctions are working, and I fully agree with the Bank of Russia on this. And they will continue to be introduced further, and what else they will come up with is unknown, so the dollar really remains a toxic currency. To save money, I recommend paying attention to the currency of the United Arab Emirates – the dirham. It is not toxic to Russians in terms of sanctions, and at the same time its rate is firmly pegged to the dollar. You can also invest in the stock market. It is now the time for investment ideas: you need to find those companies that are able to bring profit to the investor in conditions of instability. And savings in dollars is a tribute to the 90s.

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