Economist Belyaev: the ruble will break into a steep peak and will have to close exchange trading


Over the past week, we, like a multiplication table, have already learned the factors that work against the ruble in the foreign exchange market. In particular, this is a decrease in export oil and gas revenues while increasing import purchases. Plus, a huge federal budget deficit due to the fact that spending sharply exceeds revenues… A high degree of geopolitical uncertainty is superimposed on all this, which is also pushing the ruble down.

But it doesn’t make it any easier for us. In the wake of the devaluation of the domestic currency, prices in stores crept up, and according to a bad tradition, not only for imports, but also for our own, domestic … It seems that many of us will also have to wait a little with vacations at sea: they are becoming less and less affordable before our eyes . Moreover, according to official data, the Russians were preparing in unison for near and far wanderings. Thus, sales of small suitcases (for shorts and underwater masks) in May-June grew in Russia by a third, and the average purchase receipt – by 17%. But all this holiday romance can be covered with a copper basin if the ruble continues to make its somersaults.

But let’s agree that the “good reasons” pulling the ruble to the bottom did not appear a week ago, when our national currency began to fall. They keep for many months, since the beginning of the year. So there is something else here. What exactly?

Since the beginning of the week, financial analyst Mikhail Belyaev, Candidate of Economic Sciences, has been trying to explain what is happening with the ruble with general economic messages. After all, there are no deep reasons for such a fall of the national currency against the dollar, which we are seeing today. Then I realized that classical economics had absolutely nothing to do with it, which I told about in an interview with MK.

“Our economy is in a precarious position today,” he says. – A strong informational background is superimposed on it, and it does not contribute to stabilization. Everything has come together, and it all together pushes the ruble down. People and investors, who are wary of everything, go to foreign currency, which, as they think, insures their risks.

– And what course will we see this week?

– Every day our national currency loses 1.3-1.4 rubles against the dollar. Corresponding sentiments are increasingly covering the foreign exchange market. If someone at the beginning of last week was still getting stronger, he thought that it was okay, now he understands that it is time to buy foreign currency. And banks are not lost, they increase rates in exchangers in order to extract maximum profit. It can be assumed that the fall of the ruble will continue this week. Serious economic mechanisms no longer work here, human psychology is operating, close to stock market panic.

– What do you think the exchange rate will be like by the end of July?

– I’m afraid that the ruble will break into a steep peak, and exchange currency trading will have to be closed or interrupted. When quotes fall below a certain level and rush demand begins, trading stops. This is a common stock market practice. It is possible that it will be in demand in the coming days.

Is there really nothing else the monetary authorities can do? For example, to carry out interventions?

– It seems to me that they will no longer help, the situation has begun to “warm up”. Such interventions should have been carried out earlier. The dollar can greatly overshoot even for 90 rubles, it is difficult to predict the upper ceiling. If on Monday, July 3, the “Russian” loses another 1.5 rubles to the dollar, then exchange trading should be stopped. Sustain a pause, maybe a day, and then carry out foreign exchange intervention.

When and at what level can the fall of the ruble stop?

– It is difficult to say, it is not known what measures will be taken by the government. If the situation comes to an exchange crash, then in one day the ruble can “shoot” above a hundred. As it was in March 2022. Nothing is impossible here!

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